With Keir Starmer leading Labour to a landslide victory, the UK property market is in for some exciting times. Starmer has vowed to rebuild Britain, and his party’s proposed policies aim to address the housing crisis comprehensively. Here’s a breakdown of their key initiatives, the likelihood of these promises being fulfilled, and the rough odds of each:
1. Reforming the Planning System and Local Targets
Labour plans to overhaul the planning system and reinstate local targets, aiming to build 1.5 million new homes over the next five years. That’s 300,000 new homes annually, a significant increase from the 247,000 homes built in 2021-2022. Given their strong parliamentary majority, the odds of successfully implementing these reforms are fairly high, around 70%. But let’s face it, overcoming bureaucratic hurdles and finding the funds might be like herding cats in a rainstorm.
2. Building New Towns and Utilising Brownfield Sites
Labour proposes a new generation of towns and expedited approval for brownfield sites, while also releasing ‘low quality’ green belt land for housing. Currently, there are over 66,000 hectares of brownfield land in England alone, capable of accommodating around 1.3 million homes. These measures could significantly boost housing supply. With electoral backing, the odds of achieving this are about 60%, considering potential local and environmental opposition (cue the NIMBYs—Not In My Backyard).
3. Prioritising Social Rented Housing
The focus on building social rented housing, with first-time buyers given priority over investors, aims to make housing more accessible to those in need. Social rented housing currently constitutes about 17% of the housing market. Labour’s plan to significantly increase this percentage is crucial for tackling homelessness and ensuring more equitable housing distribution. The odds of success are around 65%, with substantial investment and coordination with local authorities and housing associations being crucial. Let’s hope they can all play nice together!
4. New Mortgage Guarantee Scheme
To assist first-time buyers, Labour proposes a mortgage guarantee scheme. This could lower the barrier to homeownership for many, particularly younger buyers, who currently face average house prices of around £286,000 (as of early 2024). The odds of successfully implementing this initiative are about 70%, given Labour’s strong mandate and the potential popularity of the scheme among first-time buyers. Fingers crossed this doesn’t turn into another bureaucratic circus.
5. Leasehold Reform
Labour intends to make lease extensions easier and more affordable, ban new leasehold flats, and address unregulated ground rent charges. Approximately 4.5 million homes in England are leasehold. These reforms could greatly benefit leaseholders by reducing costs and increasing housing security. The odds of enacting these legislative changes are around 75%, given the broad consensus on the need for reform and Labour’s parliamentary strength. Finally, some good news for the long-suffering leaseholders!
6. Renters’ Rights and No-Fault Evictions
Banning ‘no-fault’ evictions and empowering renters to challenge rent increases are central to Labour’s plan to enhance tenant protections. In the private rented sector, which houses about 19% of households in England, this could lead to more stable and fairer rental agreements. The odds of these reforms being implemented are about 65%, as balancing tenant rights with landlords’ interests will be crucial, though Labour’s strong position provides a solid foundation. Renters, rejoice—but don’t pop the champagne just yet.
Overall Likelihood of Delivery
Taking into account the various initiatives and their individual odds, the overall likelihood of Labour delivering on its promises for the UK property market is estimated to be around 67%. This reflects a strong political mandate and the feasibility of their plans, balanced against practical challenges and the need for cooperation among multiple stakeholders.
If Labour can navigate these challenges, their policies could significantly transform the UK property market, making housing more accessible and affordable for all. With the electoral mandate they have received, there is a strong possibility of delivering on these ambitious promises. Time to sit back, relax, and watch the housing market drama unfold!
As always thanks for reading!
𝐿𝑜𝓊𝒾𝓈 𝐿𝑜𝓅𝑒𝓏
P.S. Remember – Hindhead Property is not your typical estate agent and we’ll beat any fee! For more info call Louis or Philippa on 01752 875075, or email us at: q@hindheadproperty.com
Sources:
- ONS UK House Building Statistics 2021-2022.
- Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government Report 2023.
- National Brownfield Institute Report 2023.
- Shelter Housing Report 2023.
- UK House Price Index 2024.
- Leasehold Reform (Ground Rent) Act 2022.
- English Housing Survey 2023.
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